Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 14, 2016

The pair USD/JPY declined by the start of trading session last Friday but was able to recover forming a hammer pattern. This signals the prices is about to go higher than the 108.50 level which has been a rigid resistance. Greenback being a powerful competitor, rallying in the financial market, withdrawal is not far from happening. The firm resistance at 105 handle is anticipated to remain strong as the base of this market. Traders should presume volatility of this pair, nevertheless still with a positive outlook.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: November 14, 2016

Last Friday’s trading session, a candle pattern was formed indicating a negative outlook for the pair AUD/USD. The market supports this trend reaching towards the 0.75 level as it goes much higher to 0.7750 support level. Should the trend breaks at 0.752 level, it will change course to a downward direction.

It is advised for Aussie traders to look out for Gold as indicator which has a big impact that is known to have an interdependence relationship with Australian dollar market.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 14, 2016

Euro against greenback has been in a tight spot last Friday as the USD rallies after the negative reaction from the market the prior week. Trump acted on a low key instead of further alleviating the problems of side-by-side negative comments and accusations regarding his campaign especially the issue about the Obama Healthcare Plan which he strongly believes he could improve the U.S. Economy.

Trump has also mentioned to carry on the Federal Reserve where the next Fed policy would go on as planned. The market is agitated with the next Fed rate hike while they are positioning for quite some time now for the next prices. This has also been favorable for U.S. Dollars while giving tension for the pair as it closed at 1.0850 level last week. The price was able to break this Monday morning at 1.0780 level.

The speech of Draghi later this day is what to look out for during the U.S. Session where the market could get hints on the next step whether there would be cut on QE some time in the future. However, it is known the Draghi may not talk about the monetary policy, then the market would be directed by the figurative trends and current cash flow in the market.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 15, 2016

The JPY was subject to selling pressure following a speech from the Bank of Japan’s Haruhiko Kuroda. The Japanese yen was unable to receive substantial support from domestic demand in spite of the positive output for the Japanese GDP for the third quarter. Meanwhile, the USD was subject to increased buying pressure, causing the USD/JPY pair to increase in value.

The currency pair’s value continued to trade along the upper range, with the pair testing the 108.00 range, where it remained until the end of the London trading session. The New York session saw the USD/JPY break through its previous level and buyers were able to extend profits beyond the 108.00 region.

The USD/JPY’s 4-hour chart shows the pair going well beyond its current moving averages, while the pair’s 50, 100, and 200 EMAs showed a significant increase in value. Resistance levels for the USD/JPY is currently at 108.50, while support levels are expected to be at 108.00.

The pair’s technical indicators are all situated at the positive region. The USD will have to go beyond 108.00 in order to maintain the pair’s bullish stance and to keep the pair going up to 108.50. Sellers are also expected to make a comeback in the market, with the 106.50 as their primary aim for the USD/JPY.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 15, 2016

The USD has been recently exhibiting a steady increase, causing the EUR/USD pair to open this week’s session with a weaker value and went even lower as the previous session progressed. The currency pair closed last week’s session at its support levels of 1.0850 and the market was expecting further support levels at 1.0800. However, the EUR/USD started out the previous trading session at below 1.0800 in the light of a broadly increasing USD value.

The EUR/USD further decreased in value, going through 1.0750 at the London session and tested support levels at 1.0700 at the start of the New York trading session. The movements of the EUR/USD were somewhat muted during the course of the trading session, mainly due to the significant strength of the USD plus Draghi opting to stay mum with regards to the ECB’s future plans on its monetary policies. The currency pair spent the rest of the New York session consolidating after the market chose to keep a positive outlook for the Trump presidency, and the USD is expected to have a continuously positive reaction in the market.

The market is now expecting the release of Germany’s preliminary GDP during the European session, as well as the retail sales data from the US to be released during the New York session. These are expected to confirm market speculations with regards to the Fed rate hike in December.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: November 15, 2016

The EUR/GBP pair lost its sellers below the 0.86 region for the third consecutive session, maintaining the currency pair’s stance over the key levels in the light of a highly active economic calendar.

The market is expecting the release of Germany’s GDP report for the third quarter of 2016. The CPI data for the UK is also expected to exhibit an increased cost of living for the nation at 1.1% for October. The GDP report for the European Union is also expected to get significant attention from market players as it gets released later in the session.

The increased activity in the economic calendar could lead to an increase in stock market activity, which will then have a significant impact on the demand for EUR. The EUR/GBP is currently trading at the 0.8610 range, and incessant bounces from the 0.86 handle could possibly cause the pair to break through the handle and could lead the pair to trade at 0.8652 points and 0.85.

On the positive territory, if the pair manages to go above its 100-DMA of 0.8628 then this could cause the pair to go over 0.8664 and possibly even reach its zero figure of 0.8700.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: November 15, 2016


The Great Britain did not issued macroeconomic releases as of yesterday. The market is described to be in a risk-off sentiment, however, it made an unsafe fall back for the pound as it swings around on its fresh lows. The unfavorable data of China’s economic activities relatively affected the GBP. The sterling further made a price break amid the opening session on Monday. The price decline from 1.2594 to 1.2564 levels which nearly fill the gap in the mid-Asia.

The market met the 1.2591 region that provided another flow of selling pressure. Sellers were able to push the price downwards and tested the 1.2500 mark before the opening of EU session.

The pair entered the level and indicated 1.2450 daily lows but promptly carried out a roll back. The 200-EMA is neutral which also impede the sellers to lowered down the fillips. The 50-EMA pass over the 100-EMA through an upward motion. Both moving averages executed an upward trajectory. Current resistance meets the 1.2600 region, support stands at the 1.2500 level.

The technical indicators generated bearish patterns. Moreover, the MACD histogram showed some weakening against the buyer’s position. RSI stayed behind the overbought zone then pointed southwards. Mainly, the market is seen to be dominated by the bears.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 15, 2016


The euro move back on its eleven-month lows throughout the mixed options of Eurozone data releases which lies in the red due to the victory of Donald Trump in the recent U.S elections.

The euro break a lower opening when the price plunged from the 1.0850 region to 1.0830 yesterday. The common currency was unable to fill the gap it created since it moved in a downward position and traded in a short-term lower trend line. The pair were blocked at 1.0800 level and slowed down amid Asian session.

Subsequent to the consolidation period, the EURUSD were able to push the level and manage its losses within the 1.0750 level. Sellers merely testing the level and locked in a daily low of 1.0727 in the post-EU open. The EUR curtailed after breaking the aforesaid level.

The price is trading below the moving averages as indicated in the 4-hour chart. Moving averages (50, 100 and 200 EMAs) are in a downward direction. Resistance is situated at 1.0750, support is seen at 1.0700. The technical indicators have gauged that the pair settled in the oversold situation and occupied the negative levels. The MACD histogram weakened and confirmed strength for the sellers. The RSI indicator approaches the overvalued zone which favors an advance move lower.

It is recommended for the pair to go back to the 1.0850 level in order to ease the downward pressure.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: November 15, 2016


The Australian dollar is trading on its monthly low and the sluggish result of Chinese data affected the Aussie which caused it to have a change in direction yesterday. The AUD decline to its lowest point in 4 weeks that started on Friday. The price turn away from short-term rising channels and made a dipped below 0.7600. Moreover, the market is dominated by the bears as of the moment.  

The AUD were able to meet a temporary support over the 0.7540 region but kept in a trading range surrounded by aforesaid level. During the session yesterday, the pair is toggling continuously. Buyers did not succeed to surpass the above price of 0.7560, meanwhile, sellers also failed to break the price below 0.7520. As shown in the 4-hour chart, moving averages is placed above the price. The 50-EMA pass over the 100 and 200 EMAs in a descending manner. Current resistance is positioned at 0.7570, support laid at 0.7540.

The technical index moved towards a steep reduction around the negative region. MACD is in a neutral position which indicates strength for the sellers. The RSI oscillator consolidated likewise in the negative zone.

The pair will continue to decline, reaching the 0.7500 mark if the downward phase kept its position for the following days. Another chance of recovery is still possible for the bulls, in case that a bounce off in the support level occurred.

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 16, 2016

The AUD/USD pair exhibited increased volatility during Tuesday’s session but ended the session on a higher range at 0.7559 points after increasing by +0.05% or 0.0004 points. Meanwhile, the NZD/USD closed down the previous trading session at 0.7099 after decreasing by -0.24% or 0.0017 points.

The Australian dollar received substantial support after the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its recently concluded policy meeting. The minutes of the RBA showed a balanced inflation risk, indicating a more stable monetary policy which is expected to go forward. The RBA has also showed a positive stance with regards to global growth. However, the market has to consider that the RBA meeting took place prior to the election of Donald Trump.

The Australian dollar broke sharply as the session closed due to the release of the US retail sales data which came out on a much positive note as compared to October’s data. According to report, majority of households in the US purchased a wide range of goods, including motor vehicles. The retail sales report indicates that the US economy is sustaining enough growth which could increase the possibility of a Fed rate hike in December. However, the Federal Reserve has stated that it will be closely watching the regulation of the financial market as well as interest rates due to Trump’s fiscal spending proposals. The Fed Vice Chairman has also stated that however risky the market liquidity is at present, the liquidity is just enough to sustain the movement of the global market.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 16, 2016

Following Trump’s election as the US president, the equities market has been receiving a significant amount of money due to hints that Trump might start implementing tax cuts and remove fiscal spending. US yields are increasing, while outflows are occurring in Fixed Income for high-risk assets such as equities.

The H4 chart for the USD/JPY pair exhibits 2 POC areas, with the first POC located at the 107.80-108.00 trading range which is characterized by a number of price rejections. The price is expected to reach 109.00 and if it manages to clamp down over 109.00, then this will lead to the currency pair possibly reaching 110.00 points. A retracement for the currency pair could possibly call for a bullish block at 106.90-107.10 trading range. The bounce for the USD/JPY is expected to be at the 105.20-105.40 trading range and must be monitored if the price for the pair becomes rejected at the 106.90-107.10 region.

However, since the pricing for this particular currency pair is very bullish, traders are recommended to monitor the 110.00 region since if a reverse bearish divergence occurs, then a counter trend could be expected at the 107.00 range.

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 16, 2016

The AUD/USD pair exhibited increased volatility during Tuesday’s session but ended the session on a higher range at 0.7559 points after increasing by +0.05% or 0.0004 points. Meanwhile, the NZD/USD closed down the previous trading session at 0.7099 after decreasing by -0.24% or 0.0017 points.

The Australian dollar received substantial support after the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its recently concluded policy meeting. The minutes of the RBA showed a balanced inflation risk, indicating a more stable monetary policy which is expected to go forward. The RBA has also showed a positive stance with regards to global growth. However, the market has to consider that the RBA meeting took place prior to the election of Donald Trump.

The Australian dollar broke sharply as the session closed due to the release of the US retail sales data which came out on a much positive note as compared to October’s data. According to report, majority of households in the US purchased a wide range of goods, including motor vehicles.

The retail sales report indicates that the US economy is sustaining enough growth which could increase the possibility of a Fed rate hike in December. However, the Federal Reserve has stated that it will be closely watching the regulation of the financial market as well as interest rates due to Trump’s fiscal spending proposals. The Fed Vice Chairman has also stated that however risky the market liquidity is at present, the liquidity is just enough to sustain the movement of the global market.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 16, 2016


The weak GDP data in Germany were unable to shake the euro seeing the common currency to further strengthened. As the European currency sustained its position, the result of the Economic Sentiment in the Eurozone is better-than-expected. The pair presented in red figures on the previous trades accordingly. The Fibre approach to its 11-month low on Monday before it make a backtrack. The euro successfully recovered from its losses compared with its USD counterpart on Tuesday. The price rebounded into the edge of the oversold territory which enable for an increase toward 1.0800. The EUR tested the aforesaid level and promptly curtailed amid post-EU opening. The pair pushed the 50-EMA as shown in the 1-hour chart. Moving averages (50, 100 and 200 EMAs) headed on a lower position. Current resistance stands at 1.0800, support is seen at 1.0750 region.

The technical indicators are found in the extreme levels of the oversold condition. The MACD histogram was reinforced which confirmed the softening position of the sellers. RSI indicators plunge in the oversold area.

It is recommended that when a break on top of the 1.0800 occurred, the current rebound will expand. Moreover, if the pair tested the 1.0850 level, this will fill the gap that the pair created yesterday. In case that the bears controlled the price there is a tendency for a decline towards 1.0650.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: November 16, 2016

The increase in the Producer Price Index of UK was not able to support the British pound, the pound further weakened consequently to the decline of the inflation figures in the Great Britain last month. The sterling kept intact in the pressured area and continued to have a gradual move downwards. The cable pair is trading in a tight range amid the Asian session and headed on the nether side before the EU opening. The price further plummeted which tested the 1.2400 level during the mid-EU hours.

The GBP/USD broke the 200-EMA, tested the 100-EMA, both activities lasted in the interim of the Euro hours. All moving averages exhibited a neutral stance seen in the 4-hour chart. The resistance is found at 1.2500, support is seen at 1.2400. The indicators move down in the positive zone. MACD grew less which confirmed weak position for the buyers. RSI descended which presented increasing strength for the sellers. Other forecasts said that bears will dominate the entire market for the following days.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: November 16, 2016


The kiwi further stabilized on Tuesday because the market has already secured a stable condition after dilemmas regarding 7.5 earthquake in New Zealand and issues with the election win of Trump.

The price firmly established a bearish sentiment and traded within the 0.7100 region. Buyers attempted to extend towards the upward correction but prices settled under the selling pressure within the 0.7150 during the Asian hours. The pair lowered down to the 0.7100 level and stayed there in the course of the day.

According in the 1-hour chart, the price endures a bearish 50-EMA and stimulated as a resistance. The downturn of the moving averages continued to worsen. Resistance is seen at 0.7150, support is at 0.7100.

MACD further developed and indicated a weak position for the sellers. RSI headed northwards after leaving the undervalued condition.

The pair shows some signals for further strengthening as it remains on top of the 0.7100 region. Moreover, the bull’s target is set at the 0.7150 level.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 17, 2016

The GBP/USD pair remains in the lower trading range even though it has managed to stay above 1.2400. Market players have long been speculating that the after-effects of the Brexit referendum will continue to have an influence on the sterling pound no matter how many times it would increase and its bulls will not be able to stay put. The GBP will have difficulty with regards to getting and maintaining a substantial bull stance since the Brexit process will be too risky for investors and traders for them to make long-term bets.

The currency pair has recently been trying to break through its rut, but any uptick by the sterling pound is always met with suspicion from investors and is always seen as a sell opportunity. The pair was somewhat able to increase by 200-300 pips during the past trading sessions but was incessantly pushed down by bears and has returned below 1.2500.

For today’s trading session, investors are expecting the release of the UK retail sales data during the European session, with investors waiting whether this particular data release would be able to exceed initial expectations.

The CPI data from US and comments from Fed’s Janet Yellen is also expected to make its rounds today, and the GBP/USD could possibly benefit if Yellen confirms the occurrence of the Fed rate hike in December by going down to the 1.2300 region.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 17, 2016

The EUR/USD has been consistently in a tight trading range for the past session as market players are waiting for the next stimulus in order to mark the start of the short-term trend. Although the EUR/USD has hit some significant price lows for this year, its follow throughs have been very few and far in between. The pair is currency seeing more consolidation, which indicates that the bulls are still waiting for possible economic events which could cause the price of the pair to crack both ways.

The number of economic data which will be released today could possibly cause the pair to crack either way. The CPI data and Core CPI is scheduled to be released before the start of the New York session, and market players are expecting a positive data release since this could compel the Federal Reserve to continue with the rate hike in December. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is also scheduled to make a speech later today and is expected to confirm whether the Fed will be pushing through with the rate hike, and she is also expected to confirm that the Federal Reserve will be sustaining its operations and functions without any political influence, especially after Donald Trump’s victory. However, if Yellen fails to confirm the occurrence of the Fed rate hike, then this could cause the USD to weaken and the bulls will be active in the EUR/USD pair.

The pricing of the EUR/USD should be able to go beyond 1.0725 in order for it to benefit the bulls, something that has not done by the currency pair for the past 24 hours. Today’s session could be a crucial period with regards to determining the projected direction of the pair.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 17, 2016

The USD/JPY pair was subject to extreme selling pressure after reaching 109.751, its highest level reached since June. This selling pressure caused a possibly bearish closing price for the currency pair, which opens the possibility of the currency pair taking a 2-3 day break. The USD/JPY could also revert back to its last rally at 105.465 points if the selling pressure becomes substantial enough. The USD/JPY closed down the previous session at 109.072 after decreasing by 0.109 points or -0.10%.

Market analysts are speculating that the increase in value of the Japanese yen was mainly due to the weakness of the DJIA and the S&P 500 indices, together with the carry trade buying. The USD might have also lost some of its value due to the ambiguity of the 10-Year US Treasury Notes and 30-Year US Treasury Bonds, as well as a slightly weaker US Producer Prices Index data release.

For the New York session, investors are expected to react on the release of the consumer inflation data, building permits data, jobless claims data, and housing data. Comments are also expected to be released from the President of the New York Fed as well as from the Fed governor. For Thursday’s session, the USD/JPY pair could still be subject to a steadily increasing selling pressure if Janet Yellen says that US exports could be adversely affected by a strengthening in the value of the USD, therefore creating a negative environment for the US economy in general.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 21, 2016

The USD exhibited a steady increase last week along with the US Treasury yields, and this has affected all major currencies across the board specifically the euro and the yen. This has created adverse effects for the EUR especially since the QE has already negatively affected the said currency. The ECB has not yet issued a statement on whether it would be tapering the QE and this has caused the EUR/USD to drop through 1.0800 last week and even dipping through 1.0600 towards the closing of the week. The EUR/USD is currently at its support levels of 1.0580.

The 1.0500-1.0600 is a relatively critical support region, however, whether the pair will be able to maintain its hold on this particular range will be dependent on the yields in the coming weeks. As of now, the USD continues to increase in value while the EUR continues its losing streak and is not showing any signs of apparent strength. The bulls attempted to take hold once the pair hit the 1.0700 range but failed and now the EUR/USD is under total control of the bears.

For this week, ECB’s Draghi is expected to make a speech on Monday but market players are not expecting any vital information from Draghi since the ECB chair is known to only address monetary policy issues when deemed extremely necessary, and the ECB has not yet expressed concerns with regards to the downfall of the euro. The FOMC minutes will be released on Wednesday and this is expected to give hints regarding the December Fed rate hike. If the minutes comes out as positive, then this will further contribute to the strength of the USD.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 21, 2016

The sterling pound was subject to significant losses since the unexpected strength of the USD has already took hold of the market’s general direction. However, as compared to other major currencies such as the AUD and EUR, the GBP was able to withstand the sudden strength of the USD and its effect on the market. This is because the market is slowly coming to terms with unconventional political moves, which is evident in the Brexit referendum and US elections. The sterling pound was able to become more stable since market players are now seeing Brexit as much less of a risk as compared to before.

For the past week, the GBP has consolidated and stabilized in spite of its bearish bias. This particular bias was somewhat augmented by weak economic data from the UK which was caused by the slowly sinking negative effects of the Brexit referendum as well as the pronounced weakness in the euro. The CPI data for UK came in lower than expected, but the retail sales data for the region came out on a more positive note.

For this week, the GDP report for the UK is expected to be released but since the USD has been constantly increasing as well as US Treasury yields, it is expected that this will have more impact on the currency pair. The US will also be releasing the minutes of the FOMC meeting this coming Wednesday, which is expected to give clues about the upcoming Fed rate hike in December.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: November 21, 2016

The USD/CAD pair ranged for the entirety of last week since the sudden surge in the value of the USD seemed to have little if no effect on the currency pair. However, the USD/CAD had one of the tightest ranges as compared to other pairs since the USD/CAD was unable to go beyond 1.3400 and 1.3600 on both the resistance and support side, which was mostly due to the fact that the increase in the value of the USD was mainly offset by the strength of the CAD.

The CAD has been experiencing significant increases since next week due to an increase in oil prices as the OPEC meeting draws nearer. The market is currently putting in optimistic expectations with regards to the meeting, with deals hopefully being made and statements from various stakeholders are showing that this might be the case once the meeting commences. The Canadian economy is expected to get a boost if ever deals regarding oil production cuts are struck especially since the economy is largely dependent on the production of oil.

For this week, the market is expecting the release of Canadian core retail sales data on Tuesday since this is an efficient indicator of Canadian purchasing power and this could give clues with regards to the general direction of the Canadian economy. The minutes of the FOMC meeting is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, and this is expected to give hints regarding the Fed rate hike on December. The USD/CAD continues to be bullish, and the target for the currency pair is expected to be 1.40 in the next few months. The pair is most likely to be drawn to the said target by the impending Fed rate hike as well as an expected rate cut from Canada.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: November 22, 2016

The expected deal to be made at the OPEC meeting this week helped sustain oil prices and caused the USD/CAD pair to become muted for the majority of the trading session yesterday. The USD/CAD pair experienced a slight drop to 1.3400 points, triggering a decreasing in buying for the said pair. Since the OPEC meeting had a fairly good turnout, with the possibility of a deal being struck close, oil prices rose and this is expected to help in augmenting the strength of the Canadian economy. The effect of this increase in oil prices was reflected in the increase in the value of the CAD and the drop in the value of the USD/CAD pair. The currency pair traded tightly during the Tokyo and London trading sessions but was able to break through once the New York session began, with the pair dropping to 1.3380 where buying opportunities appeared and is now trading just over the 1.3400 range.

For today's trading session, the Canadian core retail sales data is expected to be released later within the day, with the data expected to come in at 0.6%. If the data fails to make it to this particular speculation then this could cause the currency pair increase to 1.3500. However, if the data manages to come in at the expected data then this could trigger a further decrease up to 1.3200. However, the uptrend is expected to continuously dominate the USD/CAD pair so any decrease in its value can be used by traders to buy the USD/CAD pair in the short-term.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 22, 2016

Both the bulls and the bears have been struggling to take control of the EUR/USD pair even though this particular currency pair exhibited little activity during the past trading sessions. However, the USD has once again extended its recent strength, indicating that other USD-related pairs could experience a temporary recovery before again going downwards, and the EUR might find it hard to extend its profits through the 1.0675 trading range.

However, there is a substantial option interest within the 1.0600-1.0659 region and this could lead to the currency pair consolidating between this particular range. The minutes of the FOMC meeting is set to be released on Wednesday, and this particular data is expected to confirm market speculations of a Fed rate hike this coming December. The market expectations for the rate hike is currently at 90%, and speeches and comments from a number of Fed officials including Janet Yellen seem to point towards a confirmation of this rate hike.

However, there is also a possibility that the Fed rate hike might not immediately translate to an added strength in the USD and could possibly weaken the currency if the Federal Reserve refuses to give hints regarding rate hikes for 2017. For today’s trading session, there are no major economic releases expected today from the eurozone and the US, so the EUR/USD pair is expected to consolidate between 1.0600 and 1.0700.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 23, 2016

The GBP/USD pair spent the majority of the previous trading session consolidating within the 1.2400 range as the USD kept on alternately losing and gaining its value for the past session. The value of the USD has been significantly uncertain for the past two sessions and this is an expected effect of a bullish market last Monday.

There are no major economic news releases expected for the latter part of November, and this is why a lot of currency pairs have been directed by option expiries and flows instead of fundamentals. The strength of the USD has been mostly attributed to the recent surge in US Treasury yields which was the result of Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential elections, but US Treasury yields have started tapering off its strength at the start of this week, causing the USD to lose some of its gains as well.

The minutes of the FOMC meeting are scheduled to be released later today, and this is expected to lend some measure of volatility to the GBP/USD pair even though the minutes are expected to confirm market speculations of an impending Fed rate hike this coming December, as well as give a general overview of the Fed’s future interest rate hikes. However, this could also induce a drop in the value of the USD once the minutes give the opposite of the market expectations.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 23, 2016

The EUR/USD pair was expected to remain within the 1.0600-1.0650 trading range due to reports of large-scale options placed within this particular region and will remain until the options expire. The options within this range are scheduled to expire within the day and the minutes of the FOMC meeting are set to be released today, and the market is expecting an increase in the volatility of the EUR/USD pair which could possibly extend for the next few days.

There has been no major economic releases from the eurozone or the US from these past few days, and options players wielded their power during this period of low activity by attempting to control the financial market in order to safeguard their option entries. Unless other market players would have a good grasp on these very recent developments in the market, they might not be able to have a full understanding of the market movements during these past trading sessions.

For today’s session, the market is expecting quite a number of economic data to be released, such as the oil inventory data and unemployment claims data from the US. However, majority of market players are now waiting for the FOMC minutes which is scheduled to come out any time during the New York session. The market has a 95% expectation percentage for the December Fed rate hike, and the minutes from the FOMC is expected to confirm this particular speculation. Aside from confirmation of the rate hike, market players are also expecting to get hints regarding future rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. If the data fails to meet market expectations, then the USD could lose its strength and drop significantly.