Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 9, 2016

Aussie is dropping as market is reacting to the U.S Presidential election and the downhill of major U.S. indices such as Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract, E-mini S&P 500 index and E-mini NASDAQ-100 futures declined by 3.71%, 4.50% and 4.57% respectively.

The U.S Presidential election is shaking the financial market with Republican candidate Donald Trump leading the match against the Democrat candidate Hilary Clinton.On early Wednesday, there has been a surge in demand for safe haven assets while the risky assets plummeted which is expected because of the election.

If Hilary Clinton wins the election, the pair AUD/USD would recover to highs but this is still fifty-fifty with U.S. having divided sides. Thus, the financial market is disrupted with this election.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: November 10, 2016


The NZD/USD pair experienced remarkable volatility during the start of the Asian trading session on Thursday which was mostly due to a reversion of a post-RBNZ drop in an attempt to regain the pair’s hold on the 0.73 region. The NZD/USD pair has presently increased its value by +0.15% to trade at 0.7290 points after posting its daily session lows at 0.7272 after the RBNZ’s movement. The NZD immediately faded following the RBNZ statement with regards to its decision on rate cuts, especially since comments from the central bank has put increased pressure on the pair. RBNZ has decided to cut back its cash rates by up to 1.75% to 25 bps, increasing more opportunities for easing in the weeks to come.


However, the currency pair was immediately pushed back by bulls as they regained momentum due to an expected major reversion in the prices of commodities since the market seems to be increasingly positive on Trump’s proposed reforms. The NZD/USD has also received additional backing from a correction in the USD. as well as with the release of the US jobless claims data and comments from Fed later in the North American trading session.


Resistance levels for the NZD/USD pair is expected to be at 0.7301, and could possibly go further up to 0.7350 and 0.7372. On the other hand, the pair’s support levels are expected to be at 0.7300 and could go even lower at 0.7260 and could test the 0.7223 level.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 10, 2016


The USD experienced a sharp surge against the JPY during Wednesday’s trading session as a result of positive investor reaction to Donald Trump’s shock victory in the US presidential elections. High-risk assets went lower during the start of the session, causing a number of investors to immediately move their funds into the safe haven currency JPY. This has then caused the USD/JPY to drop in its lowest levels for this October at 101.179 points. However, the pair eventually bounced back strongly after US equities were able to regain all their previous losses and closed down the previous session on a highly positive note.


The international equities market is still expected to experience a number of backlashes as the market unwillingly adjusts to this unprecedented Trump victory. Investors in the USD/JPY pair are also advised to prepare in the face of added volatility. The USD/JPY pair is expected to rally along with stocks if stocks continue to increase, but if stocks manage to drop then investors are expected to find refuge in the Japanese yen.


The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is also expected to release a statement soon with regards to addressing concerns regarding the decreased possibility of a Fed rate hike, as well as highlight steps on how the central bank plans to address this sudden increase in market volatility. Market volatility is expected to last for a few more days until investors are able to follow the basic fundamentals.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 10, 2016


A day before the US presidential elections, the market exhibited little activity as market players expected a Clinton victory, with the EUR/USD pair going below the 1.1000 range due to an added strength in the USD. However, as Republican candidate Donald Trump slowly pulled off an unforeseen victory, the market panicked, with investors and traders at a loss on what to do with all the market confusion. Upon the advent of a Trump victory, the EUR/USD surged by up to 300 pips, however as the London trading session closed down and a Trump victory was slowly becoming a reality, the USD increased its strength and the EUR/USD started plummeting.


Aside from the fact that Donald Trump lacks political experience, the market is still in a state of confusion due to uncertainties with regards to his political plans. Trump’s victory has also greatly decreased the possibility of a Fed rate hike in December, especially since Trump has been an open critic of the Federal Reserve even during the start of the campaign period. The probability of a hike rate was up by 80% prior to the elections, but is now down to less than 50%, with majority of market players already expecting the rate hike’s cancellation.


The market’s general outlook is on the volatile side, and analysts are expecting the increased activity to continue for a day or two before finally settling down. Traders can opt to become spectators or risk buying the EUR/USD at strong support levels.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 10, 2016


As of now, there are no major economic releases in Europe which means there is no news about market movements. Moreover, the pair was deeply moved by external factors. The victory of Trump yesterday upset the dollar and cause it to decline.

The EUR/USD strengthened last night as it attained its highest level on the 8th of September. The pair was able to surpass other levels as it moved upward to the 1.1300 region. Subsequent to the testing of level, prices yielded its fresh highs and tried to withdraw resulting for a fall into the opening price.

The euro and dollar obtained the 1.1050 in the opening of post-European and consolidated its gains. The price pushed the 1.1050 level and draw additional losses at the 1.0950 amid the North American trading session. Moving averages developed through the neutral stance in the 4-hour chart. Resistance filled the 1.1100 region, support stayed at 1.1050 level. The MACD histogram weakens indicating sell signal. RSI kept intact in the neutral condition.

The dollar is expected to remain in the pressured area while the lower level has the tendency to lure buyer’s interest. The goal is set at the mark of 1.1100. The next level is supposed to see at 1.1150.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: November 10, 2016


The weak result of Australia Consumer Confidence did not influence the AUDUSD. On the other hand, the mixed economic data from China and Trump’s victory affected the USD. The pair further demonstrated a strong sell-off during the Asian trading hours yesterday.


The Aussie and greens had a downturn on its fresh low after stimulating monthly highs and it fell at 0.7570. The pair was blocked at 0.7570 causing it to bounce upwards promptly after the level testing. It also preserves its bid tone during the NY session and struggled towards 0.7675.

According to the 4-hour chart, the moving averages are neutral. Resistance is found at 0.7675, support comes in at 0.7650. MACD grew lesser which produced weak position for the buyers. RSI plunged into the oversold zone.


There are assumptions about AUD to hover in the red zone for short-term only. In case that it broke the seller's support, it will move the price to the 0.7625 region.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 10, 2016


As expected, the market has been dominated by thought about Trump’s success and his plans as the next president of the United States. The surprise victory of the newly elect President made the market to become extremely volatile considering that the market had least expected for this to happen. This shocking event tend to disturb the market by which British people know how it feels as they have experienced it during the Brexit referendum.

It was an unbelievable day for the GBPUSD since it was able to generate 200 pip within 16 hours.

The USD bolstered on Wednesday morning but immediately fell down after the election results. The pair further demonstrated a huge whipsaw pattern since the strength of the greens toggle every now and then. This also distresses long-term buyers and investors seeing the market to shift in different directions causing them to struggle in selecting for their trades.

As of this writing, the turmoil continues and it is recommended to keep away from the possible risk until the market recovered. Within a short range, it is expected the weakness seen in the US dollar will be apparent upon this week, however, there is no estimated duration how long this weakness will last.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 10, 2016

The pair USD/JPY declined yesterday night reaching the same with September low with the depreciation of U.S. dollar when Donald Trump won the election. The pair recovered at 101.16 level after sell-off and rose to 103.50 level. Shortly after the upward momentum was overpowered by the selling pressure again. The traders had longer gains during sessions in North American time.

The price continued to move higher but broke at 104.00 to 104.50 level. It has preceded the 200-EMA 4-hours chart opening of New York whilst the strong resistance has hampered the rally of dollar. Other Moving Averages are in the downward direction in the same pace with the price.

The MACD histogram signals control of sellers as they are gaining strength towards the 102.50 level. The Overvalued area is almost reached in the RSI indicator with chances to move lower.

The Resistance level is posited at 103.50 level while the support level is at 103.00 level. The downward direction will continue if the U.S. dollars continues to depreciate with Sellers leading the price activity towards the 102.50 level. It is expected for a near-term technical correction at 104.00 level. A daily close below the physiological levels could further decline towards the 103.50 level.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: November 10, 2016
The pound declined on Monday despite its recent uptrend which is because of House Price Index giving a positive outlook. The price stayed at 1.2400 level and did not recover. But it bounce back a little after the testing is done.
In its 100-EM chart, the decline halted while the price broke in the 50-EMA moving downtrend. On the other hand, the 100 and 200 EMA chart moves uptrend. The resistance level posited at 1.2500 with a support at 1.2400 level. The MACD histogram signals weakening of the buyers' position while the RSI is descending.
The break at 1.2400 level could proceed even lower towards 1.2300 level.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: November 10, 2016


Even after the results of the U.S. Presidential election, the pair USD/CAD still remains resilient and steady despite all the volatility in the market. It remains to be calm which has been happening for the past few days.


It continues to move in a subdued pace as it consolidates within a small range. Traders who positioned long can continue to do so. The trend shows a solid uptrend with showing clear direction of the next move towards the medium target at 1.4000 level.


The volatility of greenback gaining strength and weakness for the past day has been equalize by the stability of loonie. However, the Canadian dollar has immediate effect with the fluctuations in the oil market for the past 24 hours. Another factor is the uncertainty brought by his ideals in his campaign agenda such as changes in immigration and trade deals. The move of U.S. dollars remains unpredictable on which direction to go to.


The pair is seen to remained consolidated for the week and keep within the range until all the chaos has settled down after the U.S. Presidential election. Traders could either continue to invest long or stay in the sidelines until prices improve.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 11, 2016

The USD increased tremendously against the JPY during Thursday’s trading session after investors posted a somewhat hopeful sentiment towards President-elect Trump’s term, as well as his ability to add stimulus to the US economy as well as increase the nation’s interest rates. The USD bounced back to 106.94, its highest level reached since July. The USD/JPY pair closed down the previous trading session at 106.793 points after increasing by +1.08% or 1.139 and is expected to make further gains at 3.5%.

Since today is a US bank holiday, the USD is expected to get high levels of support from the US Treasury market, which could possibly lead to limited upside activity or profit taking, especially since US Treasury yields reached its highest levels this week, its highest after 10 months. The USD/JPY could either increase further if the US reflation trade gains momentum and long-term US Treasury yields go higher, or the currency pair could be augmented by a steady flow of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. However, there is also a possibility that the USD could lose its footing against the JPY, especially since one of the major highlights of the Trump presidency is protectionism, which could adversely affect the US foreign trade.

The recent activity of the USD as well as the US equity markets suggest that investors are expecting that Trump would be able to become successful with regards to expanding the US economy by way of tax cuts and fiscal spending. These could induce inflation levels and add up to the US debt, prompting the Fed to increase interest rates next year in a more frequent succession than previously expected.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 11, 2016

The EUR/USD pair continued losing value during the last trading session as the market is slowly grasping the fact that Trump is going to be the next President of the United States. The market slowly regained momentum following its previous violent reaction to the results of the US elections, with the USD strengthening on almost every currency. This increase has especially affected the JPY and the EUR, with the EUR dropping to 1.0950 and even went lower and reached 1.0900 and 1.0850.

The EUR/USD pair is currently consolidating between 1.0850 and 1.0920. The market is not expecting any major economic data to be released today for the eurozone, which means that the currency pair’s movement will be largely determined by the market’s reaction towards the most recent events and the results from the recently concluded US elections. The market has little grasp of how Trump is going to turn out as a political figure, however it is expected that less-than-ordinary political and economic events such as Brexit and the Trump presidency could slowly become the norm across the globe, and the international market might eventually become used to events such as these, which could tone down the occurrences of violent market reactions. The market is still expected to be remarkably volatile for the coming days and traders are advised to proceed with caution on all trades.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 11, 2016

The yen experienced added pressure due to the high demand for high-risk assets, while a renewed possibility for the Fed rate hike appeared yesterday following a positive US labor market report. The USD/JPY pair traded within high ranges during Thursday’s session, with its price reverting back to 105.00 and even went further to 106.00 after going over 105.50 following a somewhat weakening during the Tokyo session. Sellers are now closely monitoring the 106.00 after quotations jumped from every attempt to return to the positive territory.

The USD/JPY pair is now expected to reach 106.50 and could possibly test the 107.00 region prior to the opening of the North American session. The currency pair is now a little ways over its moving averages in its 4-hour chart, with the 50, 100, and 200 EMAs projecting an upward direction. Resistance levels for the pair is expected to be at 107.00, while support levels are expected to come in at 106.50.

The MACD levels for the pair increased, indicating added buyer strength. Meanwhile, its RSI values are currently on the overvalued territory and is expected to go lower. The USD/JPY could extend its gains up to 107.00 if it manages to go over the 106.50 level.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 11, 2016


The fresh talks happened yesterday had helped lessen uncertainties about the economic policy to be imposed by the newly-elect U.S President, Donald Trump. Since the talks have discussed that the Trump administration is expected to further improve economic growth and inflation.

The EURUSD pair remains intact in the pressured area on Thursday and holds over on its recent lows. The single currency established a neutral stance and a short-term undertone. Consequent to a steep decline developed on Wednesday, the euro and greens met its support at 1.0900. Prices bounded from the level and made a minor reversal for its previous losses, then headed towards 1.0950 in the Asian session. Buyers were not able to fully recovered since they have failed to reach again the aforesaid level.

The euro stayed within the region 1.0950 during the trading session in the morning. The pair had a downturn to the 1.0900 level just before the opening of NY trading hours. All moving averages approached the lower position according to the 4-hour chart. Seeing the 50-EMA crossed over the 100-EMA in a downwards direction as well. Resistance can be found at 1.0900, current support is seen at 1.0850. MACD settled in the negative zone. RSI moved close to the oversold levels, favoring a lower move.

It is recommended that when a bearish tone dominate the market, the EUR/USD will have widespread losses around the 1.0800 region.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: November 11, 2016


The pound negatively had a dipped and stayed under pressure despite the selling wave of new oil along with the neutral sentiment result for EU banks. Even on Thursday, the pair is in a stable neutral position.

The British pound made a rebound from the level 1.2400 and further carried out a minor reversal for Wednesday's losses. The pound proceeded at 1.2500 amid EU session. Moreover, buyers fall short in expanding their gains, the price made a rotation as it performed a reversal then return again to 1.2400 which act as support.

As shown in the 4-hour chart, the price tested 200-EMA, however, it blocked the pair’s movement upward. The cable pair is situated between the moving averages. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs undertook the neutral position. Resistance leans towards the 1.2500 region, support is set at 1.2400. MACD kept a constant level, favoring for the strengthening of the buyers. The RSI indicator consolidated around the overbought levels.

There are assumptions that the pair can retest the 1.2500 level if both can make a recovery. Contrarily, a decline under the 1.2400 is expected which would indicate a short-term upward momentum easing and would enter to the mark 1.2300.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: November 11, 2016

Together with the cut rate carried out by RBNZ, the kiwi also had a cut down against the greenbacks. Moreover, the NZD had a negative day since yesterday. Sellers were able to move the price towards a lower position after the short period of consolidation stage which is found at 0.7300.

The pair pushed the 0.7250 level and further tested 0.7200 during the morning trades of U.S. Prices were able to surpass the 50 and 100 EMAs while 200-EMA is being tested as shown in the 4-hour chart. Moving averages made downturn in the same timeframe. Resistance is located at 0.7250 level, support marks the 0.7200 region.

Analysis on the technical side seems negative, as MACD constricted and indicated the softening position for the buyers. RSI endures an oversold condition.

Apparently, bearish investors are prevailing in the market by which a strong bearish sentiment influences the pair’s movement towards the 0.7200 level. The next target is 0.7150.

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 11, 2016

The New Zealand dollars went downhill because of concerns with the Trumps victory and the inflationary of economic policies. The kiwi closed at .7212 that declined by -0.92%. Although it increased initially when the results has been announced which is deemed to be the final rate cut this year’s interest cycle. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered its benchmark borrowing rate to a record low of 1.75% yesterday, the third price easing this year. It is predicted only 20% probability of rate cut next year with the target rate at 1.7% by the Central bank.

The Weekly Unemployment Claims of U.S did not meet the expected results which reported 254,000 jobs while the Mortgage misdemeanors dropped by 4.52%. However, the Federal Budget Balance climbed from -44.2 billion to -81.9 billion and the 30-year Bond Auction also increased by 2.9% with 2.1 coverage with the former auction at 2.47/2.4.

It is a holiday on Friday where banks will be closed and this includes the Treasury market. Traders could use the U.S. Treasury Futures as a basis.

The profits earned in the U.S. equity market and U.S. dollars, there is a possibility for the short-term surge for Kiwi. Furthermore, the results of U.S. Presidential election is expected to bring inflation that may influence Fed rate hike more than what was predicted for 2017.

USD/AUD Fundamental Analysis: November 11, 2016

The U.S. dollar is overpowering the Australian dollar with simultaneous buying in the G-10 complex. This has been a bad week for Aussie traders. A surge on the pair with heightened inflation and anticipation on the pending fiscal policies of Trump caused Traders from New York traded Aussies overnight resulted to hammer at .7740 to 7570 before profits are gathered.

The Australian dollar can be compared to China substitute for liquidity with traders doing short position on Aussie unlike illiquid Chinese assets. Australia is concerned with the high possibility for changes in global trading and its policies and practices while the U.S. Interest rates rallies.

USD/AUD Fundamental Analysis: November 11, 2016

The U.S. dollar is overpowering the Australian dollar with simultaneous buying in the G-10 complex. This has been a bad week for Aussie traders. A surge on the pair with heightened inflation and anticipation on the pending fiscal policies of Trump caused Traders from New York traded Aussies overnight resulted to hammer at .7740 to 7570 before profits are gathered.

The Australian dollar can be compared to China substitute for liquidity with traders doing short position on Aussie unlike illiquid Chinese assets. Australia is concerned with the high possibility for changes in global trading and its policies and practices while the U.S. Interest rates rallies.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 14, 2016

The USD experienced a sharp increase against the JPY following a series of investor reactions regarding Donald Trump’s sudden victory in the US elections. The USD/JPY pair closed down last week’s session at 106.615 points after increasing by +3.45% or 3.552 points.

A large number of investors had a flight to safety on November 8 due to uncertainties brought about by the elections, a move highly similar to the Brexit referendum last June. This resulted to increases in the prices of gold and CHF, but as the market came to terms with a Trump victory this has resulted to a steady increase in the US dollar. The market is now expecting added inflation due to Trump’s policies, which include added fiscal spending and production of trade. This has caused the US Treasury yields to increase, therefore putting upward pressure on the USD and making the USD a more sensible investment as compared to Japan’s government bonds. Analysts are now saying that this could compel the Federal Reserve to increase the frequency of its rate hikes.

The USD/JPY pair is expected to continue increasing if the US Treasury yields continue to strengthen as well. Major economic releases from Japan include the nation’s Preliminary GDP, which is expected to clock in at 0.2%, which is the same as the previous GDP report. For the US, expected economic releases are the Retail Sales data, Philadelphia Fed reports, Building Permits data and the Producer Price Index data. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen is also expected to make a statement on Thursday.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: November 14, 2016

The USD/CAD pair was able to reach its short-term target of 1.3500 since the pair was one of the least volatile currency pairs after the market’s reaction to the US presidential elections last week. The USD in particular exhibited wild up-and-down motions while the US elections was in process as investors did not know how to react to the sudden victory of Donald Trump. Trump is not yet known how to act as a political figure, however he is expected to implement protectionist policies and it is expected that Canada would also be affected by Trump’s “neighbor” policy, causing the CAD’s reaction to the elections to become somewhat muted as compared to other currencies.

Oil prices have also experienced added activity last week, as this commodity has a significant effect on the Canadian economy. For this week, major economic releases from the US include the retail sales data as well as a testimonial from Fed’s Janet Yellen who is expected to outline the Federal Reserve’s future policies. The market is still expecting a rate hike in December, and the Fed is also expected to increase the frequency of its rate hikes for 2017, and this speculation has been one of the reasons behind the large upticks occurring in the USD/CAD pair. However, these policies might be subject to changes as the weeks progress and as Trump assumes office next year.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 14, 2016

The GBP/USD also experienced the effect of the increased market volatility during the US elections, however its reaction was largely different compared to that of the other currency pairs. The GBP/USD pair was steadily increasing amid initial market expectations of a Clinton victory but as it became clear that Trump was winning the presidency, the currency pair suddenly increased in value as opposed to other currency pairs, which either went up and down or experienced a large decline.

The GBP/USD reached the 1.2550 range but slowly decreased as the market reconciled with a Trump victory and as the USD slowly regained some of its lost value. However, as the other currency pairs steadily dropped in value as the USD rose, the sterling pound instead rose higher and came to rest at a much higher trading range than the USD. This led to speculations that since the US was able to survive the sudden onslaught brought about by a Trump victory, the UK would also be able to hold off on its own as the Brexit progresses. The increase in the GBP was largely due to a minimizing of the initial market overreaction to Brexit, and causing the pair to go up to 1.2670 and ended the previous week with just a little below 1.2600.

The market is expecting the release of the CPI data and inflation reports from the UK this week, which could give hints regarding the overall status of the UK economy and help in evaluating the further effects of Brexit on the nation’s economy.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: November 14, 2016


The dollar had a positive day compared with its quote currency, since investors on Friday became confident over the presidential term of Donald Trump. On the other hand, the loonie had weighed down by the decline in petroleum prices. The greenbacks widens its gains and procured a short-term bullish divergence. Buyers break the prices and ascended towards 1.3540. The daily high is seen at 1.3453 while the lowest point dropped at 1.3546. As indicated in the 4-hour chart, the pair were out of the way of the moving averages.

Current resistance is positioned at 1.3540, support is located at 1.3470 region. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs established a bullish trend. Technical indicators progress through northwards entering the positive zone. MACD histogram optimized which favors more strength to the buyers. The RSI indicator manifested overbought signals.

The buying momentum is enhanced as a consolidation period is anticipated above the 1.3470 region.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: November 14, 2016
The cable pair had a favorable day last Friday, seeing the pound to make an upward trend throughout the day. Subsequent to a short-term consolidation point amid the Asian hours, buyers supported the sterling to attain more advanced movement. They were able to surpass the 1.2600 mark and settled near the 1.2700 region amid the post-European open. However, buyers failed to upsurge the price which confirmed the pair to return from it fresh session highs. The GBP touched the 200-EMA which caused it to established a limited growth intended for the forthcoming week. The 50 and 100 EMAs shifted to an ascending direction while the 200-EMA kept intact to a neutral stance as shown in the 4-hour chart. Current resistance is located at 1.2700, support stands at 1.2600 level. Technical tools preserved a bullish trend. The MACD histogram makes a positive tone which further provides strength for the buyers. RSI indicator remained to endure a consolidating phase situated in the overbought area.
The next goal is to reach the 1.2700 region. In case that the buyers lose control to improve the gains of the GBPUSD, there is a tendency for the pair to return to its previous marks ranging from 1.2400 to 1.2500.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 14, 2016

Due to a better-than-expected results presented by the Germany's Wholesale Price Index, the euro further strengthened. Meanwhile, the dollar had also stabilized after speculations about Trump’s presidency will not be really bad and the policies his supporting with will help improve inflation.

The EUR preserved a bearish sentiment and currently trades at the 1.0900 level. Furthermore, the pair procured a little reversal amid Asian session hence enabling the sellers to break the price and descended towards 1.0850. Traders unsuccessfully pushed the level on Friday. The daily high reached the 1.0920 region while the daily low is identified at 1.0839. As shown in the 1-hour chart, the price settled in the 50-EMA and rebounded promptly after testing it. Moving averages (50, 100 and 200 EMA) are set downwards as indicated in the same trading chart. Resistance touched the 1.0900 region, support marked the 1.0850 level . Technical trading tools established bearish patterns. MACD grew less and indicated strength for the sellers. RSI oscillator consolidated around the negative zone.