Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: December 28, 2016

The pair USD/JPY sways within a tight range of 116.54 and 118.66 levels. If the market sustained the support level to be at 116.54, this means a consolidation of the price going upward from 101.18 level but it could further go towards 120.00 level. The main support is found at 114.73 level and a break lower than these psychological level completes the uptrend.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: December 28, 2016
The pair continues to go downward from 0.7524 level. It rebounded to 0.7159 level but this is considered as consolidation of the decline. If the market was able to maintain the level at 1.7280 level, the decline would persist towards the next target at 0.7000 mark. However, if the pair break higher than the 0.7280 Resistance level, the downtrend is completely achieved.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 29, 2016

The EUR/USD pair became somewhat active during the previous trading session after a lackluster performance during the past few days, and this is especially good news for traders who are waiting for any sign of market activity since the holiday season has caused the market liquidity to diminish. The currency pair was able to go beyond its daily price range of 30-40 pips, and the USD’s recent price surge has caused the EUR/USD pair to plummet below 1.0400 points and even reached 1.0360 points. However, the negative pending home sales data from the US has caused the currency pair to go back above 1.0400 points.

As the new year starts and the holiday season comes to an end, the market’s volatility and liquidity is expected to return, and liquidity levels could possibly go higher. However, the strength of the US dollar is not expected to be stalled anytime soon, and government leaders from both the UK and the European Union are now preparing for the onslaught of the Brexit process next year, which is expected to be very tedious for both regions. On the other hand, Germany will also be holding its elections next year, and the market will be closely monitoring Merkel’s performance before and during the elections. However, until such time that these things happen, market players should first monitor just how long will the USD be able to maintain its recent strong stance. For the EUR/USD pair, the currency pair is expected to consolidate with a bullish undertone as the market adjusts to the very disappointing pending home sales data from the US.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 29, 2016
The USD was able to regain some of its lost strength during the earlier parts of yesterday’s trading session, which was felt all throughout the market, and has also affected the sentiment of the sterling pound. The GBP then plummeted and the GBP/USD pair went way below 1.2200 points after almost two months as a result of a very disappointing home sales data. However, as the North American session commenced, the GBP/USD pair was able to surface over 1.2200 points and has hovered over this level for the rest of the trading session. But it still remains to be seen whether the currency pair would be able to deflect the effects of the USD’s ever-growing strength.
The effects of the long and winding Brexit process is expected to be seen during the next several months since various government leaders from the UK and the EU is set to debate on how to go through with the process in general. These are expected to create a constant pressure for the sterling pound, and all reversions on the part of the GBP/USD could immediately be sold by bears, therefore making it hard for this currency pair to make any significant advancements in the coming months.
For today’s trading session, since there are no major economic data which is set to be released from the UK region, the GBP/USD pair is more likely to encounter more consolidation with a bullish undertone, especially since the market is currently experiencing low volatility and liquidity due to the holiday season.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: December 29, 2016
The USD/CAD pair continued to trade in an upward direction due to substantial support coming from the USD, which was basically the market’s theme during yesterday’s trading session. The currency pair was able to maintain its buoyancy in spite of the recent surge in oil prices. Market speculators are now stating that oil prices could be well on its way towards reaching its optimum price and once oil prices stop going in an upward direction, then this could put more pressure on the Canadian dollar, thereby inducing a strong uptrend on the USD/CAD pair.
The USD experienced a short correction during yesterday’s session after the US home sales data came in at a disappointing reading of -2.5% which fell short of initial market expectations of 0.5%. Luckily, the market is now shifting its focus on the Fed’s rate hikes this 2017, particularly the pricing of these rate hikes. The strength of the USD is very evident as of late, since the lack of trading and relatively low market liquidity was unable to mask the dollar’s strong stance, as well as the CAD’s pointed weakness.
For today’s trading session, there are no major economic data scheduled to be released from Canada, while the US is expected to release its weekly oil inventory data. Since the market is relatively thin due to the holiday season, expect an added consolidation for the USD/CAD with a bullish undertone.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 29, 2016
The dollar's strengthening influence many currencies on Wednesday. The project imposed by Trump about the increase in fiscal spending intended for the country’s economic growth and the recent data from Fed’s 2017 hike plan caused for a stronger stance over the USD.
Meanwhile, the EURUSD is unable to reacquire its gains yesterday. The euro was pushed towards the 1.0450 mark due to a renewed bout of selling amid the EU session. The sellers successfully break the level where it earned some energy to drive the price in a lower position.
As the pair pushed the level below 1.0400, bearish investors expanded its recent gains during the NA trading. As shown in the 1-hour chart, the price breaks the moving averages downwards.
The 200-EMA pointed northwards while the 50-EMA coupled with the 100-day moving averages headed to a lower area as indicated in the same time chart. Resistance touched the 1.0400 region, support settled within the range of 1.0350.
The MACD histogram rested in the centerline. The RSI moved out in the neutral zone and headed south where a present downward reading is confirmed.
According to forecast, the single European currency hovered in the downside. In case the price consolidated under the 1.0450 handle, the decline will continue reaching 1.0400 as it approach the area of 1.0350 .

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: December 29, 2016
The policy tightening of the Fed in 2017 and the recent positive data from the US weighed on the Australian dollar.
The bullishness tried to extend above the 0.7200 however it failed. The AUD/USD lose steam to surge and promptly reversed after it posted a daily high that comes in at 0.7220.
The AUD met a renewed offer on top of the 0.7200 region upon the downfall of the pair beyond the aforesaid level. The pair resumed its downward movement subsequent to the break that approaches its recent low in the 0.7159 area. According to the 4-hour chart, the price rebounded through the 50-EMA downwards and step aside from the MA technical indicators.
The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs plummeted as indicated in the same time chart. Resistance dominated the 0.7200 region, support settled in the 0.7150.
MACD weakened which confirmed strength for the sellers. The RSI shifted southwards, favoring a downward momentum.
According to forecast, the bearish slope prevailed on Wednesday. Should the price focused on the support level below 0.7200, the downward trajectory will continue in the short term. The next target is 0.7100 and 0.7150.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: December 29, 2016
The British currency weighed down by major economic events which include renewed hard Brexit fears together with the UK Mortgage Approvals data that presented lesser than expected result.
Meanwhile, the 1.23 handle was unable to regain after series of attempts. The price rebounded the level and pointed southwards. The greenbacks started to lure buyer’s interest generally. The cable pair moved near the 1.22 support before the New York session.
As indicated in the 1-hour chart, the price rebounded against the 100-EMA and persist to go southwards as it breaks the 50-EMA towards a lower point. Moving averages resumed its bearish trend as shown in the same price chart. Resistance highlighted the 1.2300 region, support touched the 1.2200 level.
The MACD histogram is consistent to be on the same level which implies seller’s strength. RSI hovered in the oversold territory.
The forecast showed that a move below the 1.22 level would trigger for another downside pressure. Sellers are able to lead the sterling under the 1.2150 mark.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: January 03, 2017

The GBP traded on a more positive note last Friday in spite of the relative lack of liquidity and volatility as a result of the holiday season. However, the gains of the sterling pound was limited by the USD’s strength as the market expects the Federal Reserve to become more stringent with regards to its monetary policies this year. The GBP managed to regain double its losses during Friday’s session as buyers were able to induce the GBP/USD to push through the 1.2300 region during the start of the European trading session and was able to reach the 1.2400 trading range. However, as the currency pair reached this particular level, the upward momentum of the GBP/USD sputtered and eventually dropped, thereby losing a fraction of its recent increases.
The 4-hour chart for the GBP/USD pair showed that the value of the currency pair was able to test its 50 EMA, while the 200 EMA was crossed by the 100 EMA as it was heading towards a downward direction. Meanwhile, the moving averages for the currency pair were able to retain their bearish tones. The resistance levels for the currency pair is speculated to come in at 1.2400, while support levels are expected to be at the 1.2300 region.
If buyers would be able to maintain their hold on the GBP/USD pair, then the value of the currency pair could possibly reach 1.2400 points. If this does not happen and the GBP/USD closes down below 1.2300 points, then this could give way to fresh bearish pressure for the currency pair and seller pressure could possibly induce the pair to drop at 1.2200 points.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 4, 2017
The USD/CAD was one of the few currency pairs which benefited from the dollar index surge, as well as the recent drop in crude oil prices during yesterday’s trading session, which was the result of the carrying out of the recent agreements between oil production firms. The USD/CAD pair continued to exhibit a somewhat circumspect trading in spite of the dollar strength and has also limited itself to a tight trading range yesterday. The USD/CAD pair made a short-term drop at just below 1.3400 points but eventually reverted back to due an onslaught in demand and is now currently hovering at just below the 1.3450 trading range. The currency pair is expected to increase its strength as the day progresses, especially since majority of traders are now finishing off the holiday season and are now coming back to their trading desks. Even if the increase in the dollar index is not expected to drop anytime soon, its effect on the currency pair is expected to be somewhat subdued since the effect of the dollar surge could be offset by the recent increase in oil prices.
For today’s trading session, there are no major economic news releases from both Canada and US, and if the USD’s strength continues to go across the board, then the USD/CAD could possibly re-test the 1.3500 levels soon.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: January 4, 2017
The trading session for the pair USD/CAD was not smooth on Tuesday with traders returning from Holiday. Currently the pair is being tested on 1.34 support level while the resistance level is found higher than the 1.35 level. The long-term uptrend may persist if the trend yesterday keeps up but this is not favorable for the Canadian dollar. The psychological levels could continue towards the 1.36 level.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 4, 2017
In spite of the recent surge of the US dollar, the sterling pound was unaffected by the increase in the dollar index and was able to hold on its own. The GBP was able to manage the surge in the USD, thanks to the highly positive economic data from the UK which puts into view that the Brexit process might not be so bad after all and might even help with regards to the bolstering of the UK economy as long as it maintains its free access on the entirety of EU-based markets.
The Manufacturing PMI data from the UK was released yesterday and came in at an impressive reading of 56.1, going way beyond the initial market expectations of 53.3 and therefore helped in cementing the positive value of the sterling pound. One of the reasons why the GBP was able to withstand the increasing strength of the USD is that the market generally expects the worst economic readings from the UK as part of the repercussions of the Brexit process, but the economic data from the region comes out as increasingly positive. However, it still stands that the actual Brexit process has yet to begin, and the question still remains as to whether the UK will still be able to have continuously free market access to the EU markets after the said process.
For today’s trading session, the market is expecting the release of the construction PMI data from the UK, and since the dollar index is expected to retain its strength for today, it is important that this data comes out as positive since this will steer the general direction of the sterling pound. However, if the data comes out as negative, then the GBP/USD pair could possibly plummet to way below 1.2200 points.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 5, 2017
The USD has been exhibiting corrections across the market during the start of today’s trading session, causing the EUR/USD pair to break through 1.0500 before eventually settling at 1.0525 points, with the outlook for the currency pair looking generally positive for today’s session. The market is expected to go through a lot of market volatility during the next few days since there are a number of major economic news releases set to be released in the coming days. However, it is still unclear whether the USD would be able to sustain its corrections in the next few days.
Since there were no economic data released during the first few hours of the previous trading session, the market has shifted its focus on the minutes of the FOMC meeting. Once the minutes were released, however, the USD sustained damages since the minutes did not have any clear hawkish stances. This has caused the EUR/USD to hit 1.0500 and then went even lower as the USD quickly recovered. The currency pair has since then been regaining its footing after the USD lost some of its strength.
For today’s trading session, the major economic news releases include the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data, a precursor to the NFP data which is set to be released during tomorrow’s trading session. The Unemployment Claims data as well as the Non-Manufacturing PMI data will be closely monitored by the majority of market players, since these are expected to continue the generally positive economic trend seen in the US lately. A positive reading from this particular set of data could also become determinants of whether the next interest rate hike from Fed would come earlier, therefore increasing the frequency of hikes. However, if the data comes out as negative, then the USD could be subject to more corrections prior to the release of the NFP economic data.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 5, 2017
The USD/CAD pair exhibited a significantly large correction during yesterday’s trading session after the USD lost some of its value due to the absence of a hawkish undertone on the minutes of the FOMC meeting which was released yesterday. The USD/CAD only weakened further since it had already failed to reach the higher trading regions. The USD/CAD pair is now sitting just over the 1.3300 trading region.
Since oil prices have been generally positive during the past few days, the market expects that its effect would be felt in the current value of the CAD as well, and true enough, the currency pair dropped yesterday while the market went into a lull. The Canadian dollar then extended its losses after the release of the FOMC minutes, which triggered the weakening of the USD and therefore increased the downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair.
There are no major economic news releases from the Canadian economy for today’s session. However, the US is expecting to release a number of major data, including the Unemployment Claims data, and the ADP employment report. These data are determinant of whether the market would experience added volatility or otherwise, depending on the readings. The US will also be releasing the NFP report tomorrow, which is considered as a critical determinant of market volatility. Traders are encouraged to evaluate the effects of these news releases on the currency pair before trading in on the USD/CAD.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 5, 2017
The GBP/USD significantly increased in value during the previous trading session after the USD dropped following the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes. The market was somewhat docile during the rest of yesterday’s session but immediately picked up after the release of the minutes during the North American session yesterday, and has caused the USD to undergo corrections across the board.
However, the reaction of the GBP/USD pair to this phenomenon is somewhat docile compared to other USD-related currency pairs, and this is expected to keep the bulls on their toes. Initially, the GBP/USD pair was expected to rise exponentially since the UK construction PMI data clocked in a highly positive reading and exceeded its market expectations of 54.2, and the FOMC minutes lacked the expected hawkishness from the market. But the reason why this currency pair’s growth was significantly limited is that the various risks and uncertainties surrounding the Brexit process continues to dog a lot of traders due to the general confusion within this issue. This is why a number of speculators are saying that the GBP/USD would be receiving the shorter end of the stick once the USD regains its strength.
Although the UK is not expected to release any economic data for today, the US will be releasing a number of important economic data along with the highly essential NFP report, which is expected to determine the overall market sentiment for the rest of the month. If these set of data comes out as positive, then the USD could possibly rebound and could be sustained until the end of January.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 5, 2017
The positive data from the Euro zone supported the single European currency which further strengthened versus its US peer. Based on the EU statistical data, the inflation rate of the European countries is fast growing. While the favorable Markit Services and Composite PMIs of France and Germany further reinforced the EUR.
Technically, the major pair maintained a mid-term downward channel within a lower boundary. However, the 4-hour chart showed a limited upside potential. The Fiber reversed some of its losses during the trades on Wednesday. The buyers drove the prices towards the 1.0450 level where an upward impetus gradually disappear in the middle session of the EU hours. After reaching the aforesaid level, euro return on its recent region where it stayed.
The 50-EMA is in a neutral position and have been tested by the price in the mentioned time frame accordingly, while the 200 and 100-EMAs headed downwards.
The EUR/USD hovered under the moving averages as the level of resistance touched the 1.0450 and support entered at 1.0400.
The MACD histogram increased which indicated a weak position for sellers. RSI moved in the neutral zone and departed from the oversold area.
As it was mentioned in the forecast, the EUR is expected to kept intact in the pressured area but recovered the 1.0500 barrier. Buyers are able to lead the pair towards 1.0550. A break down from the 1.0400 handle will cause weakness for the EURUSD as well. The initial target of the sellers is 1.0350.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: January 5, 2017
The recent data from the United Kingdom presented positive figures which caused for the British currency to recover. On the other hand, statistics for Consumer Credit, Construction PMI, and Mortgage Approvals showed better-than-expected results despite of the Brexit referendum.
As the pound recovered, it remained to be weak versus its American counterpart and traded under the 1.2300 level on Wednesday.
The traders drove the price upwards during the early trades. The cable pair had its recovery in the 1.2285 region where an upward trajectory ran out of stream in the post-EU opening. As it was shown in the 4-hour chart the price has tested the 50-EMA yesterday in the midst of the Asian session. The price was unable to recover the level and continued to sit behind the moving averages as indicated in the same trading chart. Moving averages (50, 100 and 200) remained to be bearish. Resistance jump in at 1.2300, support touched the 1.2200 handle.
The MACD histogram lies at the center point. As it approached the negative area, seller’s strength will grow but an entry within the positive zone will indicate buyers ability to dominate the market. The RSI stayed in the neutral territory.
Technical indicators presented a bearish sentiment. The initial target is 1.2200, in case the price consolidates below the primary target, the bearishness may extend towards the 1.2100 region. Furthermore, the continuous easing of the dollar would cause the GBP/USD to resume its 2-month low recovery. In order for the downward pressure to neutralize, buyers should regain the 1.2300 mark.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: January 5, 2017
The positive sentiment of the oil market yesterday brought favorable impact on commodity currencies including the Canadian dollar.
The U.S dollar recovered in the Asian hours and slowed down within the 1.3470 range when the commodity-linked pair move towards fresh offers as it continued to fell under the 1.3400 support during the onset of EU trades.
Sellers were able to resume their gains amid the European session and pointed to the 1.3260 region. The downward pressure weakened near the 1.3300 while the price made a reversal around the aforesaid level. The price further broke the 200 and 100-EMAs in a descending manner as shown in the 4-hour chart. The 100 and 50-EMAs maneuvered towards a higher position while the 200-EMA is trending neutral. Resistance took the 1.3400 level, support highlighted the 1.3330 mark.
MACD indicator declined which confirmed strength for the sellers. RSI kept intact around the oversold zone.
In case the price had directed below the 1.3330 region, it will open an opportunity for the sellers to continue a short-term downward trend. The next probable target of the sellers are the 1.3190 and 1.3260 marks. The USD/CAD is able to bounce off few of its losses if it moves back on top of the 1.3330.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: January 5, 2017
The New Zealand dollar slumped yesterday but rebounded for support in the afternoon. The 0.70 level shows a strong resistance and the exhaustive candle seen gives a selling opportunity that is formerly a downtrend for long-term. The pair is considered to be oversold that makes consolidation good or a few rebound. The New Zealand dollar seems to decline in the long run with the target near the 0.68 handle.

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: January 5, 2017
The British pound surged against Japanese yen on yesterday’s trading session in the midst of weak volatility in the market. This is already expected with traders coming back after the holiday.
The psychological level is seen lower than the 140 mark.The uptrend for long-term may persist with a possibility for chances of reversal. The session could stay calm in the next days to come thus, the traders should be patient.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: January 5, 2017
Yen was under pressure in morning trading session yesterday even though the results of Manufacturing PMI were positive. This was because of the European equity market attributed subtle and cautious sentiment that swayed the risk appetite supporting yen being a safe haven currency in the afternoon. As for U.S. Treasury bond yields, its retracement has influenced the U.S. dollars to remain low.
The pair USD/JPY maintained neutral with bullish tone. The pair was not able to maintain the recovery in Asian trading session when a string psychological level was seen at 118.00 mark and retreated. Not long after, the level moved wiping out gains.
The pair has been tested twice throughout the day and failed to surpassed its psychological levels in the 50-EMA. Both 100-EMA and 200-EMA were directed upward while the 50-EMA remained neutral. Its seems that the price will remain to sway higher than the moving averages for the day. The Resistance level is seen at 118.0 level while the support posited at 117.00 mark.
The MACD showed an uptrend while the RSI entered the neutral area coming from the Overvalued area. The price trend could further go up advancing towards the 118.00 level when the buyers maintain its lead in the market with the next target at 119.00 level.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 6, 2017
The USD/CAD pair continued to exhibit a dismal trading activity during the previous session after it went below 1.3200 for a brief period before incurring a small reversion, The pronounced weakness in this particular currency pair was mainly due to the USD’s recent drop in value during the previous trading sessions. This, along with the significant increase in market volatility, has shown that market investors and traders are now returning from their respective holidays.
The Canadian dollar has been receiving additional support from crude oil prices, which is currently still maintaining its strong stance. This is why the USD/CAD’s movement is now largely influenced by dollar movement. Since the USD is now relatively weaker as compared to the past sessions, the USD/CAD’s value plummeted to below 1.3200, but was immediately faced with a lot of buying pressure, thereby causing the pair to revert back towards 1.3250 points.
For today’s market trading session, both the Canadian and US economies are set to release a large volume of economic data, among them the Canadian employment change data, unemployment rate data, and trade balance data, as well as the NFP report, unemployment rate data, and average earnings from the US economy. As such, the USD/CAD is expected to undergo a lot of market volatility. The USD/CAD pair is expected to continue its upward trend, and could possibly go through 1.3000 points.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 6, 2017
The GBP/USD pair continued increasing in value during the previous trading session. The reaction of the sterling pound to the recent market activity has been somewhat muted compared to other currency pairs. However, it still continues to trade in accordance to the current market trends. The past trading sessions saw a highly-volatile USD, and this has been reflected in the GBP/USD pair as well. The currency pair was able to stay just over 1.2300 and just below 1.2400 points due to the recent corrections in the US dollar.
The GBP/USD recent surge in value was mostly due to the generally upbeat data coming from the UK recently, with the UK services PMI data coming in at 56.2, thoroughly exceeding initial market expectations. This positive data has triggered the pair to move beyond 1.2300 points, and as the USD weakened during the North American session, the GBP/USD pair was able to go further towards 1.2400 points.
For today’s trading session, there are no major economic data scheduled to be released from the UK. However, the US is set to release its unemployment rate and average earnings data, as well as the highly-anticipated NFP report. If these set of data comes out lower than expected, then this could cause delays in the Fed’s rate hikes, thereby causing the GBP/USD pair to possibly move towards 1.2500 points. Otherwise, then the pair could possibly revert back to 1.2300 once the USD regains its strength due to the upbeat economic data coming from the US.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: January 6, 2017

The AUD/USD build a bearish pattern before the opening of European trading. While, a recovery rally within the 0.7150 lack few pips under the level 0.7350. Sellers were able to lead the price through the range of 0.7300 where they regained some steam to continue the interrupted movement.

The price upwardly pushed the 50 and 100-EMAs displayed in the 4-hour chart. The Aussie lose its value and turn back to the 100-EMA. The 100 and 200-EMAs maintained a lowering position and the 50-EMA is in a flat line. Resistance lies at 0.7300, support is at 0.7250.

MACD increase which confirmed strength for the buyers. RSI holds the oversold territory.

The mid-term view for the Australian dollar seems bearish. It is further expected that the pair is possible to move ahead the 0.7200 and 0.7250.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 6, 2017
The EUR/USD pair was subject to extremely high market volatility during yesterday’s trading session, which signals that the majority of market players have now returned to the market after the holiday season. The USD’s correction, which started after the FOMC released a less hawkish statement, continued all throughout yesterday’s Tokyo session. However, once the European session commenced, the USD was able to bounce back and regain its previous strength, causing the EUR/USD pair to plummet through 1.0500 points from its recent value of 1.0575. But once the New York session opened, the EUR/USD pair again bounced back from its loss as the USD again experienced a drop in its strength, thereby putting upward pressure on the currency pair and pushing it over 1.0500 and is now resting just below 1.0600 points.
As based on the minutes of the FOMC meeting, although the minutes lacked the hawkishness that the market initially expected, it has nevertheless shown that there could be at least 2-3 interest rate hikes expected from the central bank this year. Market analysts are speculating that this sudden volatility in the financial market is merely a foreshadowing of the large volume of economic data which is set to be released today.
For today’s trading session, there are no scheduled economic data release from the European Union. However, the US will be releasing its highly critical NFP report, as well as the average earnings report and unemployment rate data. If these data comes out as positive, then the market could possibly again see a hike in the value of the USD. The EUR/USD pair could possibly reach 1.0700 points since traders and investors are expecting a generally positive economic data from the US, which could then compel the Fed to increase the frequency of their future rate hikes.